Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Beyond Oil: The view from Hubbert's Peak

By Kenneth S. Deffeyes

Kenneth Deffeyes is a retired petroleum geologist and a Harvard professor. He worked for many years in the petroleum industry.
In 1969, a geologist, M. King Hubbert, published his findings on the total quantity of oil resource. His conclusion was that oil production would peak and then begin to decline in about 2000 as world-wide oil resources were depleted. Deffeyes agrees with Hubbert, although he estimates the peak as occurring in 2005. Anyway, the point of this book is that it is now time to look to other sources for energy production as oil becomes more scarce and more costly.
In this book, Deffeyes looks at the sources of oil. He also has a chapter explaining how to calculate Hubbert's findings, but, as he explains, it is not necessary to read that chapter (chapter 3) or look at the calculations to read and understand the rest of the book. He also looks at oil resources that are difficult and expensive to exploit such as oil shales and tar sands. He looks at natural gas, which is fated to decline as it is another diminishing resource. He also talks about alternate fuels like uranium, hydrogen and fuel cells. He also briefly mentions ethanol, if only to point out that it costs more energy to produce than it produces and is only profitable because of government subsidies.
The whole point of this book is that industry and governments need to move immediately to begin implementing alternate energy sources as oil production is certain to decline in the near future.
This was a surprisingly interesting book, especially to me because I know nothing about this subject. I found it very informative. My only quibble with it is that it didn't go into more detail about non-geological energy sources, such as hydroelectric, wind generators and the infamous ethanol refinery. At the end of the book, the author advises that if a person wants to invest some money, he suggests royalty trusts. According to him there are at least 20 oil and gas royalty trusts in the USA. As gas and oil become more scarce, these trusts are bound to increase in value: a tip from an industry insider!

Review from Kirkus Reviews:   https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/kenneth-s-deffeyes/beyond-oil/.

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